A few weeks ago, a new COVID variant, Omicron, was detected by South African scientists- a variant more powerful and transmissible than any other, due to its various mutations. Now, it’s in the United States and other large economies (South Africa included), and its effects are already being felt. Companies are deciding whether to switch back to virtual lessons and universities are starting to hold final exams online. The big question is: how bad is Omicron? And will we have to return to the same measures we did in March of 2020?
Researchers at the University of New South Wales haves stated that while Omicron is more transmissible than regular COVID, a vaccine will be able to mitigate its most destructive effects, possibly including hospitalization and severe symptoms. The severity of an outbreak, however, would depend upon what the situation of a specific country is. The US, for example, has a lower vaccination rate than many other developed countries. A large increase in cases could potentially cause more stringent anti-COVID measures in the U.S, which could include more remote-work initiatives.
I think that the economic impact of the new variant would be somewhat smaller than other variants, though. Because we’ve already dealt with previous large increases in cases, perhaps companies and workers will be better prepared for a coming surge, if it happens. It remains to be seen, though, whether the U.S’s current high economic growth would be hampered at all.