Every year it happens. Millions of Americans rush to malls, department stores, and the Internet to scour for deals on everything from televisions and video games to clothing and cars. Last year (in 2020), ABC News reported that Black Friday for that year had become the second-largest day of online consumer spending in United States history, behind Cyber Monday of 2019 (another traditional day of sales, although for online products.) Around nine billion dollars were spent that day, and projections for the amount spent continue to grow by year. Additionally, the National Retail Federation, according to the New York Times, estimates that total spending for the holiday season could rise by as much as ten percent, largely driven by Black Friday and the winter holidays.
This year, however, is interesting for a couple of reasons (which are indirectly related.) One is the coronavirus. With the news of a new variant that has arisen in South Africa, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a shift to online spending in anticipation of the virus. The other is the ongoing supply chain disruptions because of the virus. I think this could mean that prices could be higher and quantities of goods could be lower at the shelves of major retailers, resulting in less goods to go around for more people.
To me, it’s pretty interesting how consistent the consumption of Black Friday goods has been over the past years. The only time in the last twenty or thirty years that spending has fallen from its previous high has been in 2008, when the US was hit hard by the financial crisis and resulting recession. With this in mind, there’s not much doubt about the ability of retailers to draw consumers to their stores, even with everything going on in the economy right now.