Last week I went back to school in-person, following a large vaccination campaign against COVID-19. However, in recent weeks, the Delta variant of the coronavirus has started to make waves, resulting in a large increase in cases. Some states, such as Mississippi and Louisiana, have reached all-time highs in cases, although my area is doing pretty well in vaccinations.
This warrants the question: is the Delta variant going to drive the economy down, much like the original wave? Will it result in school closures and the reintroduction of online learning? And how will it impact the economy?
In my opinion, Delta will have much less of an impact on the economy than the original wave did, for a couple of reasons. First, service sectors like IT and finance are better prepared now, with many employees working from home. This is in contrast to last year, where companies had to transition to work-from-home practices.
Additionally, I think the vaccination campaign also impacts confidence. People are more likely to go out now, and work in-person, since the vaccine protects the recipient from severe COVID symptoms and hospitalizations. Because of these factors, I believe the Delta variant won’t have as much an impact as the original wave on productivity and the economy, although there will be some effect.